Everyone has opinions about Super Bowl spots. But Peter Daboll, CEO of ad analytics company Ace Metrix, has the data to back his up. Since 2010, Ace Metrix has analyzed every national TV ad—it says it's collected more than 80,000 ads from 2,500 brands across 112 categories—which puts Daboll in a pretty good position to opine on what works and what doesn't. As advertisers begin gearing up for the Big Game, we asked, and he delivered. This interview has been edited and condensed.